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Forecast : Theresa May will still be leading this country at the end of this year

Very few economists, politicians or pollsters predicted the Conservative Party’s failure to secure a majority at last summer’s general election.

In 2016, most betting markets gave Hilary Clinton at least an 85 per cent chance of winning the American election – much the same probability given to a Remain outcome in the EU referendum at the start of that year. Against this backdrop of shocks and uncertainty, making firm political predictions may be unwise, but we can be confident that Theresa May will still be leading this country at the end of this year.

Despite a tumultuous twelve months, she is in a strong position. She has united the bulk of her Party around her vision of Brexit (while Labour still has no vision), and has largely kept the Government together, despite Cabinet resignations and the fallout from the sexual harassment scandal in Westminster. The polls show that Labour has not built on its position since the election, failing to capitalise on those resignations and the NHS winter crisis.

The sacking of Damian Green before Christmas would have severely damaged the Party and the Prime Minister’s standing if it had been carried out in the days around the departures of Priti Patel and Michael Fallon, but removing the First Secretary of State at the start of the Christmas recess and after the final PMQs of the year was good timing.

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